Hurricane Center tracking Atlantic disturbance, 2 tropical waves
Hurricane Center tracking Atlantic disturbance, 2 tropical waves
Cheryl McCloud, Treasure Coast NewspapersWed, September 16, 2026 at 10:49 AM UTC
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All eyes are on a disturbance in the central Atlantic. Will it strengthen? Or will wind shear tear it apart?
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The National Hurricane Center early Sept. 16 reduced its chances for development over the next seven days, but for the first time gave it a chance for development over the next 48 hours. Most noticeable, the Hurricane Center at 2 a.m. Sept. 16 was no longer saying it could become a tropical depression later this week, which was the forecast they day before.
AccuWeather forecasters said the system is currently battling wind shear and dry air but will soon enter a more humid area with less wind shear.
There hasn't been any tropical activity in the Atlantic basin since Tropical Storm Edouard formed Sept. 1 but the disturbance east of Bermuda "could make a run at breaking the quiet streak by this weekend," said Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG-TV in South Florida, in his Substack blog "Eye on the Tropics."
Elsewhere, AccuWeather continues to highlight an area in the northern Gulf for a potential "homegrown" tropical threat. Anything that develops close to the coast gives residents little time to prepare.
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If there are no hurricanes this year before Sept. 22, the 2026 season will break a record, the second this month.
Could we see no hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year? If so, it will be only the third time in history.
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The next name on the hurricane list will be Fay.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., Sept. 16.
Is there a hurricane coming to Florida? Low pressure area could
No, but a trough of low pressure east of Bermuda is forecast to enter an area "a little more conducive for development in a couple of days."
It is not considered a threat to the U.S. or Florida.
Could we see a tropical storm or hurricane near Florida in September?
Anything is possible, but chances are low, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The National Hurricane Center was highlighting an area about 600 miles east of Bermuda early Sept. 16, giving it a low chance for development over the next seven days, but it's forecast to enter an area favorable for development in a couple of days.
"This swirl is associated with a storm in the middle layer of the atmosphere," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"Sometimes storms like this spin down to the surface, and if conditions allow, they can evolve into a tropical or subtropical storm."
AccuWeather forecasters are giving a window of development between Sept. 17 and Sept. 21.
Forecasters were also highlighting an area to watch in the northern Gulf.
A dip in the jet stream along the Atlantic coast may allow a storm in the upper atmosphere to break away and drift southwestward across Florida later this week, according to AccuWeather.
"If it slows down over the northern Gulf, a tropical depression or storm could develop near the Gulf Coast from late this week into this weekend," said AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
"If a tropical depression or storm forms close to the coast, residents may have little time to prepare for flooding rainfall, gusty winds and rough surf," according to AccuWeather.
Could we break another hurricane record this month?
If no hurricane forms by Sept. 22, the 2026 season will officially break a record for the latest date a first hurricane has ever formed, according to AccuWeather.
On Sept. 12, a 60-year-old record fell. The latest date for the first hurricane of the year had been Sept. 11, which has happened twice since 1966. Until this year.
Historically, by Sept. 16, there have been nine named storms and four hurricanes, with the second major hurricane developing by Sept. 19.
This season, there have been five tropical storms and no hurricanes as of Sept. 16.
Will 2026 be a year of no hurricanes?
If this year's Atlantic season has no hurricanes by Nov. 30, it will be only the third time it's happened and you have to go back to 1907 and 1914.
Of course, it is possible there were hurricanes, but records before the satellite era depended on observations on those nearby.
Since the satellite era began in 1966, there have been two occasions where we've seen two hurricanes in a season, in 1982 and 2013.
AccuWeather updates season prediction with fewer hurricanes expected
In a mid-September update, AccuWeather lowered its prediction for the number of hurricanes that could form this season.
Forecasters are now predicting:
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Named storms: 8-11
30-year historical average: 14
Hurricanes: 1-3 (down from earlier prediction of 3-4)
30-year historical average: 7
Major hurricanes: 1-2
30-year historical average: 3
Direct U.S. impacts: 3-5
30-year historical average: 4
A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
"“We have never gone this late into the Atlantic hurricane season without a hurricane in the satellite era,” DaSilva said.
“The strengthening El Niño is a major reason we are lowering our forecast again. Increasing wind shear has made it extremely difficult for storms to organize and strengthen, and we expect those conditions to become even less favorable as El Niño strengthens.”
National Hurricane Center tracking one disturbance
There was one disturbance listed by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 8 a.m. Sept. 16.
Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development in the next few days while the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent
There are two tropical waves:
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 18N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
A sharp tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles, located along 61W, south of 20N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NHC map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
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The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with orange medium and red high. In 2026, the tropical outlook will use a gray X to indicate disturbances with a low chance for development.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map highlights "disturbances" in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don't have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
"Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
"Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes."
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What's changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Florida weather radar for Sept. 16, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in FloridaWhen is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Arthur: Tropical Storm Arthur formed June 17, 2026
Bertha: Tropical Storm Bertha formed July 20, 2026
Cristobal: Tropical Storm Cristobal formed Aug. 12
Dolly: Tropical Storm Dolly formed Aug. 27
Edouard: Tropical Storm Edouard formed Sept. 1
Fay, fay: (sixth-named storm historically forms Aug. 29; first hurricane by Aug. 11; and first major hurricane Sept. 1)
Gonzalo, gohn-SAH-loh
Hanna, HAN-uh
Isaias, ees-ah-EE-ahs
Josephine, JOH-seh-feen
Kyle, KY-ull
Leah, LEE-ah
Marco, MAR-koe
Nana, NA-na
Omar, OH-mar
Paulette, pawl-LET
Rene, re-NAY
Sally, SAL-ee
Teddy, TEHD-ee
Vicky, VIH-kee
Wilfred, WILL-fred
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We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story has been to include new information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida's service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane Center tracking Atlantic disturbance, 2 tropical waves
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